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California prediction market users were the most likely among qualifying states to report trading against their own political preferences for profit, at 45.3%, according to a survey reported by Action Network.
The California share compared with 38.3% across the survey’s 2,495 prediction market users. Illinois had the lowest share among qualifying states, at 28.0%.
California leads a limited state comparison
Better Collective commissioned the research, which Research Without Barriers conducted online between Oct. 2 and Oct. 6, 2026. The wider survey included 4,398 Americans, of whom 2,495 said they trade on prediction markets.
Ten states qualified for the prediction market user breakdowns. A state needed at least 85 respondents to be included, so California’s ranking does not represent a comparison of all 50 states.
The findings reflect respondents’ reported behavior. The source does not identify the specific trades they made or explain the difference between California and Illinois.
Younger users more often trade against their politics
Across the prediction market user sample, 54.8% of respondents ages 18–24 said they had traded against their politics for profit. Among those 55 and older, the share was 26.5%. Those age-group findings were not California-specific.
The survey also found that 57.3% of prediction market users planned to trade on the 2026 midterms. Among respondents who specifically trade political markets, that share rose to 83.5%.
Just over half of users, 50.8%, said prediction markets were more accurate than polls. That result measures users’ confidence in the markets, not demonstrated forecasting accuracy.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the California Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), 24/7.
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Source: As reported by Action Network.
This article was created with the assistance of AI and is monitored by our editorial team.
