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Prediction markets still show Republicans as the slight favorite to keep control of the U.S. Senate, but individual state contracts have moved enough to outline a more realistic Democratic path than the top-line chamber market suggests.
Kalshi’s Senate-control contract gave Republicans a 55% chance to hold the chamber as of the source report, down from about 60% in early July. Polymarket also showed Republicans at 55%.
Chamber-control odds remain close despite movement in race-by-race markets
The gap between overall Senate-control pricing and individual race contracts is the main development. According to the source, once safer and clearer leaning races are assigned, Kalshi’s midterm board effectively puts both parties at 48 seats, leaving a handful of contests likely to decide control.
The report identifies Michigan, Ohio, Texas and Alaska as the four genuine toss-ups on Kalshi’s board. In those markets, Democrats were priced ahead in Michigan and Alaska at 55%, in Ohio at 51%, while Texas was effectively even at 50-50. Since 51 seats are needed for a majority, even small shifts in a few races can change the chamber outlook quickly.
That helps explain why chamber-control contracts remain more cautious than some individual races: several close contests could still move together in either direction.
North Carolina and Maine add to the Democratic path
Beyond the core toss-ups, the source says Democrats could improve their chances further if they hold key incumbencies and convert additional competitive races. Former Gov. Roy Cooper was trading at 91% in North Carolina, while Troy Jackson was at 65% to unseat Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. Sen. Jon Ossoff was also trading at 91% in Georgia.
The source also highlights several candidate-specific markets that remain tight. In Texas, Republican nominee Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, and Democrat James Talarico was described as effectively tied with Paxton. Kalshi had the race at 50-50, while Polymarket gave Paxton a narrow 51% edge. Ohio has also flipped repeatedly, with Kalshi pricing Republican Jon Husted at 51% in the latest move.
What to watch next on Kalshi and Polymarket
For prediction-market followers, the key takeaway is that the Senate map appears more competitive than the overall 55-45 style chamber pricing suggests. If Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, North Carolina or Maine move again, Senate-control contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket could react quickly.
The source does not establish which specific race will ultimately decide control, and it remains unclear whether current prices will hold through Election Day. For now, the headline market still leans Republican, while the state-by-state boards show Democrats with multiple live routes to 51 seats.
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Source: As reported by Pat Evans.
