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Fliff and Onyx Odds are moving closer to the federally regulated prediction market space after related entities filed for Futures Commission Merchant status, National Futures Association membership and swap-firm registration on August 12.
According to the source report, the applications from Fliff FCM LLC and Onyx Markets LLC are still pending. If approved, FCM status would allow the companies to act as intermediaries in futures, options and swap transactions. It would not, by itself, let either company run its own prediction market exchange.
What the filings do and do not mean
The registrations suggest both companies want a deeper role in event-contract and derivatives markets overseen under the CFTC framework. But the filings stop short of confirming a full exchange launch.
That distinction matters. Exchanges such as Kalshi operate as Designated Contract Markets, which is a different status from FCM registration. The source also notes that Onyx Predictions already operates as an NFA-registered Introducing Broker.
For now, the clearest verified takeaway is that Fliff and Onyx are pursuing regulated market access, not that a new standalone exchange is imminent.
Why this matters for the broader gambling market
The move comes as sweepstakes gaming operators face increasing pressure in several U.S. states. Fliff, which has operated a social sportsbook using a sweepstakes structure and virtual currencies, had excluded 20 states from its offerings by the end of July. Iowa, Indiana and Maine were added after measures targeting dual-currency gaming were adopted.
The source places Fliff and Onyx within a wider shift across the sector. Companies including VGW, Modo, Stake and Pulsz have exited some markets after new laws took effect, while Money Factory and CoinFrenzy announced closures as scrutiny increased.
At the same time, more companies are exploring prediction-market models. ProphetX and Novig have pursued CFTC approval as Designated Contract Markets, Betr entered through its acquisition of NFA-registered Introducing Broker Ascent Capital Management, and MyPrize entered the space through a partnership with Crypto.com.
Onyx has also been building around this strategy. The company announced a $20 million Series A round at a $220 million valuation, and said its partnership with Payward included plans to use Payward’s U.S. derivatives infrastructure for prediction market products.
What to watch next
The main open question is whether regulators approve the pending registrations and what products Fliff or Onyx may pursue if they do. For players and industry watchers, this is another sign that some gaming operators are testing federally regulated prediction markets as traditional sweepstakes models face a tougher regulatory environment.
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Source: As reported by news.worldcasinodirectory.com.
