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Prediction market companies and their opponents are spending more to shape federal policy in 2026, as Congress and regulators take a closer look at event contracts tied to sports, elections, and other real-world outcomes.
CNBC reported that Kalshi spent $990,000 directly on lobbying in the first half of 2026, nearly matching the $1 million it spent in all of 2025. Including outside firms, Kalshi’s federal lobbying total reached nearly $1.8 million in the first six months of the year. The company uses seven lobbying firms, including its in-house operation.
On the other side, the American Gaming Association spent $1.39 million on lobbying so far in 2026 and nearly $1.8 million when outside firms are included. CNBC said that represented a 30% increase from the first half of 2025. Cherokee Nation also spent $600,000 in the first half of 2026.
A firm lobbying for Polymarket spent $180,000 in the first half of 2026, putting it on pace to match the $360,000 spent in 2025. CNBC reported that Polymarket uses one lobbying firm.
The spending fight comes as lawmakers debate whether prediction markets should be treated more like gambling products or financial instruments. That question has become more urgent after controversy over trades placed ahead of U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as concerns about the possible use of inside political information.
At a House Agriculture Committee subpanel hearing on sports-related event contracts, Rep. Dusty Johnson said some Americans see the products as looking “an awful lot like sports betting,” while others view them as innovative financial products. He also said, “The CFTC is not a gambling regulator.”
Congress has introduced bills this year aimed at insider trading and at restricting event contracts tied to sports, elections, and acts of war. But legislation is still seen as unlikely in 2026, though a narrower proposal could be attached to a broader package.
For players and industry watchers, the key near-term development is at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC released a proposed rule for prediction markets in June and is now taking public comment. That process may do more to define the market in the short term than Congress, which for now appears unlikely to act quickly.
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Source: As reported by cnbc.com.
