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Karen Bass is still the favorite on major prediction markets in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff, even as rising homelessness numbers and a new public poll add pressure to her reelection campaign.
As of Friday morning, Newsweek reported Bass at 62% on Kalshi and 64% on Polymarket. That market pricing stood in contrast to a University of California Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll that found City Council member Nithya Raman at 32%, Bass at 28%, with 25% backing neither candidate and 15% undecided. The poll surveyed 1,913 registered voters from May 19-24.
The political backdrop is a worsening homelessness picture in Los Angeles. According to the figures cited by Newsweek, homelessness in the city rose 3.4% in 2025, with the point-in-time count finding 45,194 homeless people in Los Angeles. The number of people living outdoors or in their cars rose 7.9%.
Bass and Raman advanced to a November runoff after no candidate won a majority in the June primary.
For prediction-market watchers in California, the gap between polling and market pricing is the main takeaway. Public polls measure voter sentiment at a specific moment, while markets reflect where traders are willing to price the race based on available information. In this case, traders still appear to view Bass as the more likely winner despite the latest poll and the negative headlines around homelessness.
Raman has made that issue central to her case against the mayor. Newsweek reported that she criticized Bass’ Inside Safe program and pointed to reports that 40% of participants had returned to the street by the end of 2025. Bass defended her record, saying local efforts “ultimately couldn’t keep up with policies and funding cuts at the federal and state levels that pushed more people onto the streets.”
The next key development for market participants is the November runoff campaign itself. Readers tracking California political prediction markets will likely be watching whether future polling, campaign messaging, and homelessness data move Kalshi and Polymarket pricing closer together or further apart.
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Source: As reported by Andrew Stanton.
