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Legal U.S. sportsbooks are projected to take a record $32.3 billion in NFL bets this season, but prediction markets may trade even more: $36.8 billion on NFL outcomes, according to new projections cited by Business Insider.
For California readers, the most notable detail is where that prediction market activity is coming from. RotoWire says 44% of prediction market sports volume comes from California and Texas, and 69% comes from states with no legal sports betting at all.
Prediction markets are growing fastest where sportsbooks still are not legal
RotoWire projects that sportsbook handle will still rise from $31.76 billion last season to $32.3 billion in the 2026-27 NFL season. But the report says that increase would be the smallest year-over-year gain since 2018, when the Supreme Court cleared the way for nationwide sports betting expansion.
At the same time, prediction markets are described as the fastest-growing segment heading into the NFL season. Federally licensed prediction markets now accept NFL trades in most states, including some where traditional sportsbooks cannot legally take bets.
That matters in California, where statewide legal sports betting has not launched. The source report frames prediction markets as reaching users in places sportsbooks still cannot legally serve.
Bill Speros, senior betting and prediction market analyst at RotoWire, said prediction markets are not so much taking existing sportsbook bettors as “reaching people sportsbooks can’t legally reach yet.” He added: “Until states like Texas and California legalize sports betting, that’s where most of the growth is going to happen.”
What the numbers mean for California players
The projections suggest Californians interested in NFL event-based trading are playing a growing role in the broader U.S. market, even while the state remains outside the legal sportsbook map.
The source does not show a California-specific NFL handle figure, and it does not break out how much of the projected prediction market volume comes from game markets versus props, parlays, futures, or other wagers. But it does show that states without legal sportsbooks are a major driver of current growth.
For players, the practical takeaway is that the U.S. NFL market is still expanding through two different channels at once: state-regulated sportsbooks and federally licensed prediction markets.
What to watch next
The key variable for California remains legalization. The source report specifically points to California and Texas as states where future sportsbook legislation could change where NFL wagering activity happens. Until then, prediction market growth in non-sportsbook states will remain a major trend to watch. If you participate in any form of wagering or event trading, set limits and play responsibly.
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Source: As reported by markets.businessinsider.com.
