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FanDuel’s move into prediction markets is bringing event trading closer to the gambling mainstream in the U.S. FanDuel launched Predicts with CME Group in December 2025. Through FanDuel Predicts, the company offers yes-or-no contracts on financial, economic, and some sports-related outcomes to a broad retail audience.
For followers of California’s prediction market trends, the immediate takeaway is less about access today and more about where the industry may be heading. Betting, trading, and regulation may continue to overlap.
A major brand enters a growing category
FanDuel Predicts is being presented to FanDuel’s 17 million U.S. users. That gives the category a much larger mainstream platform than many earlier entrants had. According to the source, users can trade contracts tied to markets and economic indicators, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, crude oil, gold, crypto, CPI, and GDP.
The contracts are described as trading between $0.01 and $0.99. They settle at $1 if the outcome is correct or at zero if it is not. That simple structure helps explain why event trading is drawing attention from both gambling operators and financial-market firms.
The business setup is also notable. The report says CME Group takes a 50% cut of gross revenue. FanDuel, meanwhile, handles operations and marketing. Piper Sandler analysts estimate more than $300 million in potential CME revenue if the venture scales in line with rivals.
Why the legal line is still unsettled
Product fit within existing gambling and financial rules is the biggest issue at the moment.
Sports-related contracts are available only in states where traditional online sports betting is not yet legal. FanDuel removes those contracts if a state later legalizes sportsbooks. That detail underscores the close ties between these products and the broader sports betting map in the U.S., even when they are framed as event contracts.
Competition is already building. DraftKings Predictions and Fanatics Markets launched in more states at rollout. Meanwhile, Kalshi and Robinhood are established players with CFTC-approved financial contracts.
At the same time, the legal fight appears far from settled. Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas said the battle over sports event contracts is likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. There are also active lawsuits in nearly a dozen states over the overlap between sports prediction contracts and regulated sports betting.
What users should know before signing up
FanDuel’s rollout appears to be slower than some rivals. CEO Amy Howe described that approach as “disciplined.”
For users, the platform includes more than just a new contract format. Signing up requires identity verification, including a Social Security number, birth date, address, and government ID. The platform also includes responsible trading tools, such as deposit limits, balance alerts, and self-exclusion, and the app connects directly with Kindbridge Behavioral Health for mental health resources.
Those details show prediction markets are increasingly being pitched to everyday users, not just experienced traders. As that audience broadens, compliance checks and consumer-protection tools are likely to remain central to product evaluation.
Key milestones ahead
The next phase will likely be shaped by courts, regulators, and state-by-state rollout decisions. As per Eilers & Krejcik’s projection, annual prediction market trading volume could reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade. This explains why competition is intensifying.
California does not get a direct policy update from this launch, but the story is still relevant. Anyone following California’s gambling policy should keep an eye on the nationwide treatment of sports event contracts.
Major operators are testing products that fall between gambling and federally regulated derivatives. This distinction matters in any large state market where sports betting policy remains closely watched. Future debates in these markets could turn on a product’s classification.
Source: As reported by Grit Daily Staff.
