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While the National Hockey League recently inked multi-year deals with prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, don’t expect the National Football League to follow suit anytime soon.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell indicated in a panel discussion earlier this month that the league was hesitant to enter into any sort of relationship with prediction markets. Then last week, a league representative submitted written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture outlining the NFL’s concerns over the platforms where people buy and sell contracts trying to predict the outcomes of future events. More and more, the contracts being traded are on sporting events.
About 90% of Kalshi trading is sports-related, driving traffic in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion per week in recent weeks. Kalshi registered its biggest trading volume of the football season on Dec. 7 with $328 million, according to Event Horizon.
Goodall says NFL’s integrity must be maintained
Goodell’s comments came Dec. 3 during the Genius Sports Investor Day 2025 event with Mark Locke, CEO of sports data provider Genius. As reported by the Event Horizon, Goodell said the NFL will take a wait-and-see approach to prediction markets (PMs)
“That’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out … There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now. We’d like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but a lot of things we’re willing to say, we’re gonna let things play out, we’re gonna decide: Is this something we want to do? The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it.”
Goodell also said the league is keeping a close eye on sports wagering. California is one of a handful of states that has not legalized sports betting.
“Integrity, obviously, is incredibly important to us, particularly when it comes to sports betting, because that’s the backbone of our success, is making sure that whatever you see play out on the field is not being influenced by any outside influences, and we’ve seen that in sports, and it’s a risk that’s out there.”
NFL concerned about no limits on betting amounts
NFL Executive VP of Communications Jeff Miller was even more pointed in his written testimony submitted during the committee hearing concerning oversight of PMs by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC).
“We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized. These contracts fall outside the purview of state regulatory authorities and the safeguards they impose upon the industry.”
Contending that the amount risked in a PM could exceed what a sportsbook would allow, Miller raised the concern that this would bring “substantially greater risks to contest integrity,” ESPN reported.
“In each of these state-regulated markets, regulators and state legislators closely monitor betting activity and, with input from professional sports leagues, can determine which bets and wager levels are acceptable. Those guardrails do not exist in prediction markets.”
Miller claimed one PM allowed customers to bet on phrases like “concussion protocol,” “late hit,” or “roughing the passer” being mentioned during game broadcasts. He urged Congress to prohibit such “objectionable bets” from being offered.
The Coalition for Prediction Markets, an advocacy group led by Kalshi and Crypto.com, challenged Miller on that point.
“This testimony is like saying the stock market has no rules. The CFTC’s regulations on abusive or manipulative trading apply to prediction markets just like the SEC’s regulations apply to the stock market. This activity is strictly prohibited by both the CFTC and prediction markets, and we use a variety of tools before, during, and after people trade to prevent illegal trading and bring enforcement action when violations happen.”
Legal Sports Report reported that any changes to sports event contracts would require amending the Commodity Exchange Act, which would require approval by both chambers of Congress.
