What Does Fade Mean in Betting?

Sports bettors are always on the lookout for the top teams in the league to bet on. But sometimes it’s more about who they’re betting against that makes them profitable. This is called “fading.” Instead of looking for when to bet on something, some sports bettors are more interested in betting against something, and there are plenty of strategies where this can be successful.

A lot of sports betting is situational, and knowing when to take advantage if a team is weak is key. Bettors can also find edges in spots where the value becomes too good based on what other bettors are doing. We’ll take you through what fading is, along with some tips and advice on what to look for when considering a fade.

What does it mean to fade a bet?

What does fade mean in sports betting? Fading is basically betting against something for a specific reason. In most bets, of course, you’re obviously going to bet against something. When fading, though, that becomes your primary reason for placing the bet.

Fading can take many different forms, including very specific in-season scenarios where a team is unlikely to perform at its best because of scheduling issues, team news, injuries and more.

When to use ‘fade the public’ as a strategy

Those eager to participate in California sports betting have almost certainly heard the phrase “fading the public.” This is exactly what it sounds like. You are betting in the opposite way the majority of bettors are because the public’s favoring of one side has created value on the other.

From the time sports betting odds for a game come out to the start of the matchup, the numbers can move quite a bit. This is based on a variety of factors, but the main reason for line movement is oddsmakers reacting to what the bettors are doing.

Sportsbooks aim to minimize their risks, so they prefer not to have a significant amount of action on one side of a wager. If a point spread comes out and 85% of bettors are backing one side, the oddsmakers will likely adjust the spread to try to entice bettors to pick the other side, decreasing the book’s liability.

In such situations, going against the majority can be effective. Most sports bettors are recreational gamblers who like to throw a few bucks on a game here and there. Over the long term, tend to lose. They overvalue favorites, overreact to big moments, and often choose the over because it’s more exciting to root for scoring while watching the game.

The issue with fading the public is that it’s basically an educated guess based on where the money is going, as inferred from line movement. So, how else can you find out who the public is betting on? Some websites publish public betting data, but it’s not always available for every game. Successful bettors often develop a good sense of how the market will move once odds are released.

3 fading scenarios to look for

Always do your homework and research any game you intend to bet on. That said, here are three scenarios where fading could be valuable:

1. Fading the big-time performance:
This is one of the most popular times to fade a team. When a team plays out of its mind or a star breaks out in front of a massive TV audience, consider taking the other side in the next game. Teams often regress to the mean for a variety of reasons.
2. Fading the team traveling on short rest:
An NBA team might play three games in four nights, all in different cities. That’s a spot where they’re likely not at their best—making it a good time to fade them.
3. Fading the under-the-radar injured team:
In football, a quarterback injury will swing the spread and be accounted for. But if you’re tracking injury reports and notice multiple key players in the secondary are out or limited, that could be an opportunity to fade. These types of injuries don’t always move the line, giving you an edge.

3 fading scenarios to stay away from

On the flip side, there are a few scenarios where it may seem like a perfect place to fade, but should generally be avoided:

1. Fading the bad team: All major leagues have a few weak teams. Don’t bet against them just because they’re bad. Sportsbooks and public bettors already know they’re bad, so the value often isn’t there.
2. Fading the team with the injured star: When a star sports player is injured, public bettors rush to bet against that team. Don’t follow the crowd. Sportsbooks already factored in the absence.
3. Fading the poor performance: This is the opposite of fading the breakout game. Fading a team after a terrible showing might seem smart, but that team is often motivated to bounce back, plus the public may already be against them.

Is fading a profitable betting strategy?

Plenty of successful fading strategies exist, but it can be dangerous to blindly go after recent betting trends. Sports betting is designed for bettors to fail and for the books to succeed. When a particular fading trend starts to become too popular, oddsmakers will do everything they can to shut it down quickly by adjusting their lines and negating any advantage bettors may have had.

Fading comes down to certain game-by-game situations, and it is certainly not a one-size-fits-all model of wagering. There may be a certain example that fits into one of the fading scenarios that we touted above, but there could be other factors in that particular game that would make fading a bet unwise.

Whether you are hoping to bet on a team or bet against a team in a certain situation, never go into a bet without first doing your homework on key sports betting rules. There are plenty of situations where fading a team or the public could be a solid play. Information has never been more available to sports bettors than it is right now. It’s up to you to take advantage as you look for your next winning bet.